March 31, 2026, Berkeley, CA — A new report released today by the nonpartisan California Policy Lab (CPL) finds that Californians who leave the state tend to relocate to substantially more affordable communities, and are more likely to become homeowners in the years that follow.
CPL researchers used anonymized credit bureau data (spanning from 2016 to 2025) to follow individuals before and after they move and compared the financial picture of movers with similar Californians who remained in place. This approach provides one of the clearest and most detailed pictures yet of how affordability appears to influence migration and how Californians’ financial trajectories change after relocating. The report also shows how migration trends into and out of California have changed since the pandemic, including that entrances to California from other states have fallen to below pre-pandemic levels.
“The price tag has gone up on the California Dream, and many families are leaving the state for more affordable places,” said co-author Evan White, Executive Director of the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley. “The difference these moves make is stark. Their destination neighborhoods are half as expensive and they end up much more likely to own a home within just a few years.”
“Our report shows that people who leave California are increasingly leaving from higher-income neighborhoods,” explains co-author Dr. Brett Fischer, Researcher at the California Policy Lab. “These movers are, on average, in a weaker financial position than their neighbors, and may be moving to attain the quality of life they see their neighbors enjoying but they cannot afford.”
Join CPL to learn more about this research: The California Policy Lab is holding an event on Thursday, April 9th, from 12-1pm at the University of California Student and Policy Center in Sacramento, where they will present the new research along with a moderated discussion about the implications for California policy. Event registration
Key Findings
- Californians are leaving for more affordable communities. On average, out-of-state movers are relocating to neighborhoods where housing costs — including rent or mortgage, utilities, property taxes, and insurance — are about $672 lower per month. Rents in their new neighborhoods are about $638 (or roughly 30%) lower, while the median home price is nearly $398,000 (or 48%) lower than in the communities they leave behind.
- Leavers are much more likely to become homeowners. Seven years after leaving California, former residents are about 48% more likely (11 percentage point difference) to own a home than similar Californians who stayed in the state.
- People who leave the state are increasingly from higher-income neighborhoods but these movers are on average, financially worse off than their neighbors. The share of movers leaving higher-income neighborhoods has increased by about 6.4 percentage points (from 34% to 40%) since the pandemic. Compared with their neighbors in these higher-income neighborhoods, movers, on average, show signs of worse financial health, including lower credit scores, higher student debt, and lower homeownership rates.
- Californians disproportionately leave to, and come from, nearby states. Nevada stands out as the largest net recipient of Californians on a per-capita basis, followed by Idaho, Oregon, and Arizona.
- Fewer arrivals—not just more departures—drove a population decline. Between 2020 and 2025, 42 states sent fewer people to California than they did before the pandemic.
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The California Policy Lab generates research insights for government impact. Through hands-on partnerships with government agencies, CPL performs rigorous research across issue silos and builds the data infrastructure necessary to improve programs and policies that millions of Californians rely on every day.