New analysis brings real-time data to one of the biggest questions facing workers: how artificial intelligence may be reshaping the labor market.
June 25, 2026, Sacramento – A new, first-in-the-nation tracker launched today in California, offering one of the clearest pictures yet of how artificial intelligence may be affecting workers. The California AI-Unemployment Tracker (CAIT) links unemployment insurance (UI) claims with measures of occupational AI exposure to monitor labor market changes as they unfold.
Developed through a partnership with the Governor’s Office, the California Employment Development Department (EDD), and the nonpartisan California Policy Lab (CPL) at the University of California, the tracker is part of California’s broader effort to better understand how AI is reshaping the workforce and prepare for future labor market changes.
The accompanying report, Tracking AI-Related Job Loss Using Unemployment Insurance Claims Data in California, prepared by a team of researchers from the California Policy Lab’s UCLA site, finds that as of May 2026 there is no evidence of a statewide surge in layoffs among workers in highly AI-exposed occupations, though early signs of disruption are emerging among specific groups of workers, industries, and regions.
“California has always been a place that embraces innovation while taking seriously the responsibility that comes with it. We’re shaping the future — and charting the course for the nation. As AI advances, we aren’t just watching from the sidelines; we’re reimagining how we prepare California through strong governance and innovative policy. I thank our partners at the California Policy Lab for helping us lead the way.” –Governor Gavin Newsom
The report’s analysis draws on the California AI-Unemployment Tracker (CAIT), a tool that links unemployment insurance claims with measures of occupational AI exposure both statewide and by industry, region, education, and demographic groups. The tool provides policymakers, researchers, and the public with near-real-time data to monitor labor market changes as they unfold.
“AI is advancing quickly, and workers’ concerns about what that could mean for their jobs are real,” said co-author Till von Wachter, Professor of Economics at UCLA and Faculty Director of the California Policy Lab’s UCLA site. “This new tracker helps replace speculation with evidence, giving us a clearer understanding of what’s changing and how to best support affected workers.”
“Right now, we are not seeing evidence of large-scale AI-related layoffs in California’s labor market,” said co-author Dr. Ben Hyman, Senior Researcher at the California Policy Lab. “But we do see patterns in certain regions like the Bay Area, in certain tech-heavy sectors, and among highly AI-exposed workers with college degrees. It will be important to continue monitoring trends for those workers, as well as others, so that policymakers can respond appropriately.”
Key Findings:
● No evidence of rising statewide UI claims in AI-exposed occupations. Since the release of ChatGPT-3.5 in 2022, statewide UI claims through May 2026 show no evidence of a surge in layoffs among workers in highly AI-exposed occupations.
● UI claims increased for college-educated workers in AI-exposed occupations. Over this same period, unemployment claims among college-educated workers in highly AI-exposed occupations increased. In contrast, claims among similarly educated workers in low-exposure occupations did not show as pronounced a shift.
○ Unemployment insurance claims among master’s and PhD holders in highly AI-exposed occupations have remained elevated, moving from a baseline average of 13,000 claims per month in November 2022 to between 16,000-22,000 claims per month since mid-2023.
● UI claims increased in the San Francisco Bay Area. Claims from workers in occupations with high potential AI exposure in the San Francisco Bay Area experienced a sharp and sustained increase over this same period.
○ Unemployment insurance claims among workers in highly AI-exposed occupations in the Bay Area have consistently been measurably higher than before generative AI tools became widely available.
● UI claims rose in certain technology sectors, though claims in the Information sector have recently returned to benchmark levels Claims among workers in highly AI-exposed occupations were also particularly elevated in technology-related sectors, including Professional Services. Impacts on Information sector appear to have leveled out in late 2025.
○ Professional Services sector UI claims remained elevated after a temporary surge following the introduction of ChatGPT-3.5, while the Information sector has recently fallen back to pre-generative AI levels.
The analysis uses two established measures of AI exposure to estimate how much AI may affect the tasks performed within an occupation. One measure captures whether AI could perform or significantly reduce the time spent on occupational tasks, while the other reflects how frequently AI is currently being used for those tasks in practice. Together, these measures provide a more complete picture of how exposed a worker’s former occupation was to AI before filing for unemployment insurance.
The report authors emphasize these findings should be interpreted cautiously. The tracker cannot determine whether AI directly caused specific layoffs, and other factors, including post-pandemic shifts in technology industries and broader economic conditions, may also be contributing to observed trends.
“The ability to monitor these changes in near real time marks a significant step forward,” said Professor von Wachter. “This tool helps us see early signals of AI-driven change as they happen, giving policymakers a chance to respond before disruptions spread. As AI evolves, timely data will be critical to helping California stay ahead and adjust key workforce programs to meet the moment.”
The California AI-Unemployment Tracker will be updated monthly and includes breakdowns by region, industry, age, education, race and ethnicity, and gender. The authors note that it is intended as an early warning system, not a definitive measure of AI’s impact on jobs.
The report, and all its findings, is available on the California Policy Lab website. The tracker is available on the California Policy Lab website and on the state of California’s Employment Development Department (EDD) website.