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Los Angeles, CA, November 18, 2024 – Driven by predictive data and intensive case management, an innovative homelessness prevention program in LA County helps people before they lose stable housing, according to a new report from the nonpartisan California Policy Lab at UCLA. Implemented for the first time in California—and the United States—this approach connects people who often fall outside traditional prevention programs to critical services at key moments in their lives. The Homelessness Prevention Unit (HPU) is a partnership between the California Policy Lab (CPL), the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services, the Los Angeles County Chief Information Office, and the Los Angeles County Department of Mental Health.
The report provides detailed insights into how the model works and its effectiveness in equitably supporting vulnerable populations. Since launching in 2021, the HPU has provided tailored services— including case management, housing navigation, and financial assistance—to hundreds of individuals, helping them to stabilize their lives with the goal of preventing homelessness.
“This report offers a clear view of the model’s effectiveness and shows that, when used carefully, predictive analytics can be instrumental in preventing individuals and families from experiencing homelessness,” said co-author Janey Rountree, Executive Director of the California Policy Lab at UCLA. “We hope this report will help other state and local governments learn from our efforts and consider similar strategies in their programs to combat homelessness.”
Key Findings from the Report:
● Greater detail of the predictive model: For the first time, the report breaks down how the predictive model identifies individuals at risk of homelessness and the steps HPU caseworkers take to contact and serve them before they lose stable housing.
● Equity: The report shares insights on the equity of the model, including that it performs consistently across race, ethnicity, and gender, with a particular strength in identifying Black individuals at risk of homelessness due to historic systemic inequities.
● Preliminary impact: Out of the 456 participants discharged from the HPU, 86% reported living in permanent housing situations—such as rentals, with friends or family long-term, or housing owned by the participants—upon discharge.
This report provides the first detailed data on how the program operates and its capacity to reach underserved populations, offering valuable lessons as policymakers look to expand prevention efforts.
A New Tool in Homelessness Prevention
“If we can identify people at the highest risk of homelessness and intervene early, we have a real opportunity to prevent them from experiencing the trauma of losing their home,” said Dana Vanderford, Associate Director of Homelessness Prevention for LA County Department of Health Services. “By investing in the right proactive interventions, we’re not only preventing homelessness but also addressing challenges like mental health and economic stability—all of which ultimately save costs and lives.”
The HPU approach is unique as it meets an unmet need by proactively reaching out to those who are the least likely to seek help rather than waiting for individuals to seek out help, which often happens too late. Individuals who are most vulnerable to homelessness do not always self-identify, may not be aware of programs that can help them, or know how to reach out to those programs. Using data from health and social services, HPU identifies those at high risk and extends support before crises occur, helping to keep people securely housed.
“This project is a testament to how a marriage of administrative data and advanced analytics can unlock new possibilities in public services,” said Max Stevens, Chief Analytics Officer at Los Angeles County Chief Information Office. “By harnessing predictive models, we’re able to identify those at high risk of homelessness who might otherwise go unseen. This approach allows us to be proactive in extending support and makes our homelessness prevention efforts more precise, responsive, and impactful.”
The HPU, which is part of LA County’s Housing for Health, also differentiates itself through its approach to providing case management services; caseloads are lower than traditional homelessness services programs so that HPU case managers can provide the highest quality support during the program’s short time with its clients. The caseworkers offer highly personalized support that goes far beyond just rental assistance and includes connections to health and mental health providers, employment services, and other supportive services. By addressing individual needs, the program can use flexible cash assistance averaging more than $6,000 per client to assist with essential items like appliances and laptops, as well as with transportation, mental health, or substance use disorder services, better supporting the long-term stability and well-being of its clients.
Next Steps
As CPL continues to evaluate the long-term impact of the HPU through a randomized control trial, this report provides a critical benchmark for the program’s success to date and may guide future funding decisions. The program is currently funded through grants from the Conrad N. Hilton Foundation and the American Rescue Plan Act.
The report concludes that the HPU’s approach should be viewed as a complement to, rather than a substitute for, existing prevention services that rely on individuals self-identifying as at risk. As homelessness continues to rise in California, it is essential to employ a comprehensive range of preventative strategies. The HPU plays a vital role in reaching people who have high levels of known risk and who, without proactive intervention, may otherwise experience homelessness. A longer-term randomized control trial is underway, and CPL projects it will have results from that study in 2027.
For more information and to access the full report, please visit: https://capolicylab.org/the-homelessness-prevention-unit-a-proactive-approach-to-preventing-homelessness-in-los-angeles-county/
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The California Policy Lab is an institute based at the University of California that generates research insights for government impact. Through hands-on partnerships with government agencies, CPL performs rigorous research across issue silos and builds the data infrastructure necessary to improve programs and policies that millions of Californians rely on every day.