The Short-Term Impacts of Bail Policy on Crime in Los Angeles

REPORT: The Short-Term Impacts of Bail Policy on Crime in Los Angeles 

PRESS RELEASE: New Report Shows Short-Term Impacts of Los Angeles Bail Changes

Since March 2020, Los Angeles County has experienced several distinct shifts in bail policy, shaping how people experience the pretrial process and igniting a dialogue about bail reform, equity, and safety. This report examines three distinct changes in bail policy in Los Angeles to estimate the short-run effects on jail populations, crime reports, and arrests. The California Policy Lab is the research partner for the Committee on Reform of the Penal Code (CRPC) and conducted this research at their request.

Figure: Timeline of changes to Los Angeles bail policies, beginning in March 2020

Key Research Findings

1. Removing the emergency bail schedule and reverting back to cash bail increased average daily jail populations with no short-term effect on citywide crime. The retraction of the emergency bail schedule in July 2022 resulted in a statistically significant increase in the average daily jail population over the following two months, and no change in arrests or crime reports.

2. Reinstating the emergency bail schedule did not change the average county daily jail population or total citywide crime in the following two months, but some property crimes increased. The resumption of the emergency bail schedule in May 2023 did not cause the average daily jail population to vary from its pre-period decline, but did cause a decline in pretrial jail population beyond the pre-period trend. At the same time, there was no statistically significant change in total crime reports or arrests, but reports of property crime increased relative to the pre-period trend.

3. The Pre-Arraignment Release Protocols (PARPs) decreased daily overall and pretrial county jail populations in the two months after implementation, with no effect on citywide crime. The daily pretrial jail population decreased by over 200 people (or three percent) on average relative to the pre-period trend following the implementation of the PARPs. Despite the decrease in people held in jail, there was no change in any measure of reported crime during the same period. Arrests for misdemeanor offenses declined, while overall arrest trends did not change.

Suggested Citation: Sloan, T., Pickard, M., Lacoe, J., Bird, M., Raphael, S. (2024). The Short-Term Impacts of Bail Policy on Crime in Los Angeles. California Policy Lab, University of California. https://capolicylab.org/short-term-impacts-of-bail-policy-on-crime-in-los-angeles/